Forecasting supply of employees

Forecasting the supply of employees involves two predictions. The first estimates how many employees there would be in the organization in specific jobs if the human resource programs currently in place continue. As with forecasting demand, both quantitative and qualitative techniques can be used. The most-used quantitative technique is Markov Modelling, which uses historical records to determine the probabilities, in one year, of employees in a specific job either staying in that job, moving to another job in the company, or leaving the company. These are known as transition probabilities and are calculated for each job. By using these probabilities in computer simulations, planners can determine how many individuals should be in each position at any year in the future.

The second prediction is how many individuals in the external labour market would have the necessary skills for employment in the organization at a specific time in the future. As an example of using a qualitative forecasting technique, Diana Taylor could gather experts in a Delphi situation and collect several rounds of data concerning population trends, education levels of specific age groups, and the demand for employees by other companies. She could then use these data to estimate the number of individuals available in the external labour market. The results from both predictions will provide an estimate of the total supply of individuals with appropriate skills.

2.11. Прочитайте текст 6 ще раз, потім виконайте вправу 17.

Exercise 17.Are the following statements true or false? Correct the false ones. (Оцінюється в 3 бали)

a) To forecast the supply of employees, one has to calculate transition probabilities for each position.

b) Transition probabilities are likely retirements in one year.

c) We can calculate transition probabilities with the help of Markov Modelling.

d) Qualitative techniques are used for estimating the external labour market.

e) The Delphi method is usually employed for measuring individual skills of those currently employed in the organization.

f) Proper assessments of the external labour market and the transition probabilities make it possible to forecast the total supply of employees.

2.12. Щоб оволодіти лексичними одиницями, необхідними для розуміння й надання інформації про програми планування людських ресурсів, виконайте вправи 18, 19.

Exercise 18.Match up the following Ukrainian words to their English equivalents. Use your dictionary if necessary. (Оцінюється в 2 бали)

Exercise 19.Complete the charts with the different parts of speech. Translate the obtained pairs of words into your mother language.

E.g. cost / cost – коштувати / ціна, вартість

2.13. Слова і словосполучення у рамці є ключовими в тексті, який вам належить прочитати. Про що цей текст?

2.14. Прочитайте уважно текст 7 і придумайте доречний заголовок. Потім виконайте вправу 20.

TEXT 7

After HR planners have made forecasts of both future demand and supply, the next step is to compare the two forecasts. If they are similar, the planners may conclude that continuing current HRM programs will provide sufficient employees to meet the organization’s future demands. If there is a discrepancy between the two forecasts, then managers must redesign HRM programs either to reduce or increase the supply of employees to meet future demand. In the case of Jewels & Tools, the two forecasts will be different because of the growth that Hubert plans. Diana will, therefore, design the HRM programs of recruiting, selecting, training, and compensating to bring more individuals into the organization over the next six years and to develop their appropriate skills.

Many organizations in the real world have recently faced the opposite situation. Many have made strategic plans to reduce business costs and, therefore, their demand for employees is less than the supply. Depending on the size of the difference between supply and demand, they can employ various programs. If the difference is small, perhaps reducing recruitment and selection programs will suffice. Or the HR manager can design an early retirement program to increase the number of senior employees who will leave the organization voluntarily. If the difference between demand and supply is great, the company will be forced to develop systematic termination programs. Such programs frequently include outplacement activities in which the organization assists those employees who have been laid off in preparing for and carrying out job searches.

To work well, HRM programs must be appropriately designed and implemented.

Exercise 20.Here are some answers about planning programs. Write the questions. (Оцінюється в 3 бали)

a) What _______________________________________________________?

That existing HRM programs will provide adequate workforce to meet the business’s future demands.

b) In what case__________________________________________________?

In case there is a discrepancy between the two forecasts.

c) Why__________________________________________________________?

Because Hubert is going to expand.

d) What ______________________________________________________?

Those of recruiting, selecting, training, and compensating employees.

e) Why _______________________________________________________?

Because they have made strategic plans to reduce business costs.

f) In what case _________________________________________________?

If the difference between supply and demand is small.

g) What ____________________________________________________for?

For increasing the number of older employees who will leave the company voluntarily.

h) What ______________________________________________________?

It will have to develop systematic termination programs.

i) What ______________________________________________________ ?

They mean that the company helps those employees who have been made redundant to arrange and implement job searches.

2.15. Користуючись ключовими словами завдання 2.13., розкажіть, що ви дізналися про програми планування людських ресурсів.

2.16. Дайте відповіді на запитання:

Which program would you design and implement if it turned out that:

- demand for employees in your company could grow in future?

- demand for employees in your company could decrease insignificantly in future?

- demand for employees in your company could fall considerably in future?

- no discrepancy between demand for and the supply of employees in your company was going to take place in future?

2.17. Щоб навчитися анотувати прочитаний текст, ознайомтесь з відповідною інформацією.

Анотація – це коротке повідомлення, яке допомагає читачеві швидко визначити мету роботи, і тому надає тільки найважливішу інформацію, без деталей. Це може бути анотація книги, наукової статті, доповіді тощо.

Написання анотації вимагає знання її структури, а також уміння переробляти інформацію, використовуючи спеціальні мовні засоби.

Структура анотації:

· вступ (тема, мета роботи, яка анотується);

· основна частина (сутність роботи, що анотується);

· заключна частина (авторський висновок; призначення роботи, що анотується).

Алгоритм складання анотації:

1) Прочитайте текст один раз для загального розуміння.

2) Прочитайте текст ще раз і виділіть в ньому основні моменти та важливі деталі.

3) Запишіть на основні моменти і важливі деталі на окремому аркуші паперу. Використовуйте тільки свої власні слова!

4) За допомогою нотатки, напишіть вступ до вашої анотації: вкажіть автора, назву роботи, джерело, а у випадку журнальної статті – дату публікації; потім сформулюйте тему і мету повідомлення.

5) Напишіть основну частину вашого резюме, використовуючи тільки свої власні слова; переконайтесь, що ви охопили всі ключові моменти і додали важливі деталі.

6) Напишіть заключну частину, в якій поясніть авторські висновки. Хоча анотація написано вами і вашими власними словами, вона не повинна містити ваших ідей.

7) Перечитайте і відредагуйте вашу анотацію. Виправте граматичні, орфографічні та пунктуаційні помилки.

Під час редагування анотації важливо звернути увагу на таке:

- наскільки чітко додержано структуру анотації;

- чи дає вступ уявлення про тему анотованого твору;

- наскільки точно визначено сутність анотованої роботи;

- чи не використана зайва інформація;

- чи правильно побудовані речення;

- наскільки дотримані норми правопису.

Доцільно здійснювати редагування анотації на комп’ютері. Це дозволить вам заощадити час і сприятиме розширенню вашого словарного запасу завдяки можливості комп’ютера надавати синоніми (команда “Тезаурус”).

8) Напишіть чистий варіант та впевніться, що в ньому немає помилок.

Корисні вирази, які можна використати під час написання анотації

· У вступі

· В основній частині

· В заключній частині

2.18. Вивчіть уважно приклад анотації на матеріалі тексту 6.

Text “Forecasting supply of employees” is devoted to measures that are crucial for estimating the future supply of individuals with appropriate skills. The author shows the essence of two predictions involved in the aforementioned process and gives description of the relevant forecasting techniques. Particular importance is attached to such a quantitative technique as Markov Modelling. The application of a qualitative forecasting method - the Delphi technique - is exemplified with an imaginary business situation. Readers’ attention is called to practical effects of the techniques under consideration. The text is intended for students majoring in human resource management.

2.19. Користуючись рекомендаціями до написання анотації та прикладом анотації тексту 6, напишіть анотацію тексту 7.(Оцінюється в 3 бали)

1. Прочитайте уважно текст 8 про цілі набору працівників, заповнюючи пропуски словами у рамці. Потім виконайте вправу 21.

TEXT 8

The Purposes of Recruiting

Recruitingis the process of attracting potential new employees to the organization. This HR program is closely related to selection, which we will discuss next, because it supplies a pool of qualified (a) ______ from which the organization can choose those best suited for its needs.

Recruiting serves three (b) ______. The first is to provide enough applicants from which to select future employees. If there are too (c) ______ applicants, the company’s chances of hiring the best employees will be limited. The worst case takes place when the number of applicants is equal to or (d) ______ than the number of available positions, possibly causing the organization to hire all the applicants regardless of their level of skills and abilities or not to fill all the open positions. The opposite problem can also occur – too (e) ______ applicants are recruited. This happened at a paper mill in Duluth, Minnesota, when 10,000 individuals applied for 300 operator positions. In such cases, the time and cost involved in gathering (f) ______ and reviewing applicants are considerable and may delay the schedule of hiring. Generally, selection specialists think that five to ten applicants for each available (g) ______ is appropriate. This number is small enough to process easily and yet it should provide a large enough pool to identify potentially excellent employees.

The second purpose, really an extension of the first, is to attract at least minimally (h) ______ applicants. It does little good to have a number of applicants if most are not suited for the open positions. The (i) ______ of such applicants wastes time and resources.

The third purpose of recruiting is to attract a demographically and culturally (j) ______ applicant pool. For example, it is difficult to achieve a diverse work force in the organization if the recruitment process uses sources such as schools, media, or mailing lists that are dominated by one or a few demographic groups.

Exercise 21.Say if the following sentences are true or false. Correct the false ones. (Оцінюється в 3 бали)

a) Thanks to a recruitingprogram, the organization can have a group of appropriate candidates for existing vacancies.

b) The company is forced to employ all the applicants regardless of their level of skills and abilities if the number of applicants exceeds the number of available vacancies.

c) The company is in the best situation when exceptionally large numbers of applicants are recruited.

d) To be able to find potentially first-rate workforce, the company should have not less than ten candidates for each vacant position.

e) Not to waste time and resources in processing applications, the company should recruit applicants who are skilled enough for the open positions.

f) To have demographically and culturally diverse employees, the company cannot use sources in which one demographic group dominates.

2. В тексті 8 чотири абзаци. Придумайте доречні заголовки до кожного з них. Випишіть ключові слова з кожного абзацу.

3. Користуючись виписаними ключовими словами з тексту 8, розкажіть, що ви дізналися про цілі набору працівників.

4. Прочитайте швидко (за 3-4 хвилини) текст 9, намагаючись здогадуватися про значення підкреслених слів, потім перевірте себе за словником. Придумайте доречний заголовок тексту.

TEXT 9

The company controls three ways of fulfilling the purposes of recruiting: the sources through which potential applicants are contacted, the information given to applicants, and the contacts between the applicants and the company. Although all three affect the number and types of applicants, companies cannot totally control recruiting. Individuals often contact companies on their own, especially well-known ones such as the Coca-Cola Company and General Electric. However, some firms refuse to respond to such applications because of the cost in staff time and resources that such responses would require.

HR managers may recruit externally or internally. External sources include newspapers, broadcast media, employment agencies, educational institutions, and brochures, flyers, and signs. Internal sources include posted notices within the organization as well as formal programs that encourage current employees to recommend that friends and family members in the job market apply to the organization. These various external and internal sources differ greatly in terms of the number of individuals and the demographic groups they attract and the costs involved. For example, AMP Incorporated, the world’s largest manufacturer of electronic interconnection products, installed a telephone-based job-posting system that decreased recruiting costs from $311,000 in 1991 to $87,000 in 1992.

The second factor, the information conveyed to applicants during the recruiting process, is important because applicants use this information to decide whether to pursue further contact with the company. Research has shown that, at the initial stage of recruiting, lengthy ads providing relatively large amounts of information attract more applicants than do shorter ads. Announcements that describe specific job tasks and necessary KSAs also increase the percentage of appropriately qualified applicants while reducing the total number who apply. Another recruiting tactic is providing applicants with realistic job previews (RJPs), accurate descriptions about the job and the organization, positive points as well as negative ones. This gives any applicants who do not think the position is appropriate for them a chance to drop out of the process on their own. Utilising RJPs benefits the company because it is better to lose such individuals before the company has invested considerable time and effort in them.

Several aspects of contact between the organization and applicants are important. One is the promptness with which the firm gives information to the applicant, such as how quickly it schedules interviews after initial contact, when it provides information promised by recruiters, and how soon it gives evaluation messages after interviews. Another aspect is the attention given to arranging for on-site visits. Sometimes applicants are expected to find the hotel or the company’s office with very little instruction, or the details of schedules are not provided or are changed without notice. A third aspect is the interaction between recruiters and applicants. Applicants generally react favourably to the organization when there are frequent contacts, the company is receptive to visits, and recruiters are viewed as being representative of the employees of the company.

5. Прочитайте текст 9 ще раз, потім виконайте вправу 22.

Exercise 22.Аnswer the questions. (Оцінюється в 3 бали)

a) Why can’t companies completely control recruiting?

b) Do companies react to all applications? Why?

c) What is the key difference between external and internal sources of recruiting?

d) Is the telephone-based job-posting system installed by AMP Incorporated an external or internal source of recruiting?

e) What facts in the text prove the importance of information that applicants receive at the early stage of recruiting process?

f) What practice helps any applicants who do not think that the position is appropriate for them to leave the process on their own?

g) Why is such a procedure beneficial to companies?

h) Which aspect of contact between the organization and applicants do you think is the most important? Why?

6. Напишіть анотацію тексту 9.

7. Щоб оволодіти лексичними одиницями, необхідними для обговорення характеристики претендентів на вакантну посаду в організації, виконайте вправу 23.

Exercise 23.Match up the following English words and word combinations to their Ukrainian equivalents. Use your dictionary if necessary.(Оцінюється в 2 бали)

8. Joe Andrews – менеджер з персоналу; Pilar Soto - менеджер відділу інформації в іспанській компанії Industrias Montresor. Вони зустрілися, щоб обговорити характеристики потрібного їм нового менеджера відділу програмного забезпечення. Прочитайте розмову Joe Andrews і Pilar Soto, потім запишіть їх побажання під двома рубриками: ‘essential’ (необхідні якості) and ‘desirable’ (бажані якості).

9. Користуючись словничком у рамці, прочитайте рекламне оголошення, яке з'явилося в газетах і фахових журналах. Що з того, що обговорювали Joe Andrews і Pilar Soto, є в оголошенні?

division – відділ,high-flier –успішна людина,expanding –що розширюється, petro-chemical –нафтохімічний, urgently –терміново,to seek –шукати, ambitious –честолюбний, to take charge of –взяти підуправління, enthusiastic –сповнений ентузіазму, outstanding –видатний, track record –репутація, salary negotiable –заробітна плата за домовленістю, expense allowance –сплачення поточних витрат, generous fringe benefits –значні додаткові вигоди, c.v.(curriculum vitae) –резюме (документ про освіту, кваліфікацію та попередні посади претендента на роботу), referee –рекомендуюча особа.

4.1. Щоб оволодіти лексичними одиницями, необхідними для розуміння й надання інформації про відбір працівників, виконайте вправи 24, 25.

Exercise 24.Match up the following English words to their Ukrainian equivalents. Use your dictionary if necessary. (Оцінюється в 2 бали)

Exercise 25.Form as many noun phrases as possible combining a word in A with a word in B.

E.g. basic device, selection device, etc.

A B

4.2. Постарайтесь усно відповісти на запитання, використовуючи фрази:

· Do you know anything about devices used for selecting employees?

· What information does a traditional application form ask?

· A standard application form has some disadvantages. Do you have any idea about what they are?

4.3. Прочитайте швидко (за 3-4 хвилини) текст 10. Чи є в ньому підтвердження ваших припущень? Потім виконайте вправу 26.

TEXT 10

THE APPLICATION

Selection is the process of collecting systematic information about applicants and using that information to decide which applicants to hire. The major purpose of the various devices of selection - application form, interviews, testing, and reference checking - is to gather information about the applicants’ job-related skills. A very important principle used in developing selection devices is that the content of the questions should reflect the activities of the job to be filled.

Traditional application forms ask information about educational and work history, avocational interests, and honours. However, such forms have limitations. In the majority of cases, they have limited space, so the applicant can supply only basic information such as the names of schools attended, major, dates of attendance, and previous job titles and dates of employment. Such superficiality of information often does not give the manager sufficient details to make sound judgements about the applicant’s skills and abilities. A second limitation is that a large percentage of respondents falsify the information that they report. Such falsification is easy because often all that is requested is brief information such as job title and major. A company can use one of several devices in addition to or instead of application form to minimize these limitations.

One device that has been used successfully is a training and experience form, which presents a small number, for example five, of the important tasks of the job. The form asks applicants to indicate whether they have ever performed or been trained in each of the activities. If they answer yes, they are then asked to describe briefly how to perform the activity. Thus, the questions relate directly to the major tasks of the job, satisfying the principle that the content of the questions should reflect the activities of the job to be filled. It is also more difficult to falsify answers because it is necessary to have some knowledge of the activity to respond to these questions; inaccurate answers can usually be easily detected.

Exercise 26.Are the following statements true or false? Correct the false ones. (Оцінюється в 3 бали)

a) To collect information about the applicants’ professional skills, the manager has to employ a number of methods.

b) The major advantage of usual application forms is that they ask only basic information about the applicant’s skills and abilities.

c) Many applicants falsify the information that they report because it is difficult to check it.

d) The questions of a training and experience form reflect the important activities of the vacancy.

e) To answer the questions of a training and experience form, an applicant must have some knowledge of the activities of the job to be filled.

4.4. Прочитайте текст 10 ще раз, потім виконайте вправу 27.

Exercise 27.Find words in the text that mean the same as the following. (Оцінюється в 3 бали)

4.5. Будьте готові до виконання ролей у діловій грі за ситуацією:

Student A

You are a human resource manager in a food processing company who selects both management and non-management employees. You are expected to help an intern who has come to the company to get experience in human resource management.

Student B

You are an intern who has come to the above company to get experience in human resource management. You want to know the differences in the selection instruments that are used for the two types of positions, including what information about the applicants is required.

Have a talk with a human resource manager.

4.6. Щоб оволодіти лексичними одиницями, необхідними для розуміння телефонної розмови між менджером з персоналу і претендентом на вакантну посаду в організації, виконайте вправу 28.

Exercise 28.Read and memorise the words and phrases that are essential when having a talk with an applicant.

1) deadline – кінцевий строк (syn. – closing date)

2) to spell – вимовляти слово по буквах

3) surname – прізвище

4) first name – ім’я

5) date of birth – дата народження

6) education – освіта

7) secondary education – середня освіта

8) high school – середня школа

9) high school graduation certificate – атестат про середню освіту

10) to do military service – служити в армії

11) to go to university – вступити до університету

12) to get a qualification – отримати спеціальність

13) BSc (Bachelor of Science) in … - ступінь бакалавра з …

14) a PhD (Doctor of Philosophy) in … - ступінь доктора філософії з …

15) to work with (for) a company from … to … - працювати в компанії з … по …

16) to fax – відправити факсом

17) to put smb’s name on the list of applicants – занести когось до списку претендентів

4.7. Carlos Vila – іспанський програміст, який працює в Британії. Він побачив кадрове оголошення вже після закінчення терміну його дії, тим не менш вирішив зателефонувати Joe Andrew. Прочитайте їх розмову. Carlos остаточно запізнився? Запам'ятайте інформацію, надану ним.

4.8. Користуючись словничком у рамці, прочитайте резюме, яке Carlos надіслав Joe Andrews. Чи є в ньому інформація, яку Carlos не згадав у телефонній розмові з Joe?

sex – стать; marital status – сімейний стан; single – самотній, неодружений; secondary education – середня освіта; systems engineering– системотехніка;to promote – підвищувати (на посаді); software development engineer –інженер-програміст; supervisor – наглядач, керівник; to take a year off – піти у відпустку на рік; to sail– пливти під вітрилами; sailing cruiser - вітрильник; current salary – поточна заробітна плата; bonus – премія; native – рідний; fluent– вільний (про мову); on request– на прохання.

4.9. Будьте готові до виконання ролей у діловій грі за ситуацією:

Student A

You are a human resource manager in a commercial bank who has to hire an employee to the Lending Department. You have a telephone conversation with a candidate who has just seen your advertisement in the local newspaper.

Student B

You are a graduate in finance who is seeking a job. You have just read an ad in the local newspaper about the vacancy in a commercial bank. You call a human resource manager and have a talk with him/her.

4.10. Щоб оволодіти лексичними одиницями, необхідними для розуміння й надання інформації щодо такого важливого інструменту відбору працівників, як співбесіда, виконайте вправи 29, 30.

Exercise 29.The words in the chart may be used as nouns and verbs. Write the meanings of these nouns and verbs in your native tongue. Use your dictionary to look up any new words.

E.g. interview – бесіда / мати бесіду

Exercise 30.Complete the charts with the different parts of speech. Translate the obtained pairs of words into your mother language.

E.g. select / selection – вибирати, добирати / вибір, підбір

4.11. Під час проведення співбесіди роботодавця з претендентом на вакантну посаду дуже важливими є дві речі. Чи знаєте ви, що це за дві речі?

4.12. Прочитайте швидко (за 3-4- хвилини) текст 11. Чи є в ньому підтвердження ваших припущень?

TEXT 11

The Interview

The interview is, perhaps, the most often used selection device. The purpose of the interview is to allow at least one member of the organization to interact with each applicant and assess that applicant’s job-related KSAs.

Two aspects of the interview format are especially important. First, the interview should be structured, meaning that the interviewer asks the same set of job-related questions of each candidate. This ensures that the interviewer gathers full information from each applicant, and it makes comparisons among applicants easier because they all are evaluated on the same characteristics. The second aspect of format is the nature of the questions. Questions about job-related actions have proven to be quite useful. Table 2 provides some examples of such questions. The idea behind them is that gathering information about actions that are performed on the job is useful in making selection decisions. The interviewer must evaluate the accuracy or completeness of the response.

Training for interviewers usually is concerned with how to conduct a job interview and how to evaluate applicants. In training for conducting interviews, topics such as legal issues, physical barriers to interaction, guiding the interview and how to establish relationship with the applicant are important. In training for making evaluations, interviewers can be asked to make decisions about individuals who are role-playing applicants. The use of various types of information in making these decisions is then discussed.

Table 2